The FBK Economic Club on economic implications and outlook under Trumponomics
This time the FBK Economic Club focused on Trumponomics, the economic policy pursued by the newly elected US president Donald Trump. The meeting has brought together Russia’s leading experts to discuss the implications for the global and local economy to be brought about by the policy declared by the US President?s Administration.
Igor Nikolaev, Director of Institute for Strategic Research at FBK, briefed the audience on the key policy measures being introduced under Trumponomics, including investment into the infrastructure, lower income tax, protective import duty at the level of 45 per cent of the product value, internal market protection from migrant workers. According to Nikolaev, these measures strategically aim at the reindustrialization of the US economy. However, a number of risk factors of the US economy may pose a barrier to doing it, with the major one being the country?s high national debt exceeding 20 trln US dollars (~106% of the US GDP) and a looming cyclical crisis in the global economy which, Nikolaev believes, is just around the corner.
Pavel Demidov, Expert of the Center for Strategic Research, political analyst, Americanologist, argues that the changes being proposed by Trump are quite questionable. Specifically, many economists believe that it is unlikely that investment in infrastructure will ensure growth of the US economy in the long term. Besides, it is likely that, amid confrontation between Trump and the political establishment, some measures will fail, whereas other could have unexpected implications.
Alexey Portansky, Professor of the Department for World Economy and International Affairs at the NRU HSE, leading research fellow of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted that it is with growing concerns that the global community observes the measures pursued by the new US administration. The expert community does not welcome the economic policy pursued by Donald Trump. Withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership doubled with no clear prospect for the Trans-Atlantic partnership also affect the projections. According to Alexey Portansky, behaviour demonstrated by Trump throws into question the leading role of the US as the major economic power globally which has been undisputable for the last seventy years. Such political behaviour is fraught with unexpected consequences and may result in the reformation of the global economy as a whole.
According Andrey Movchan, Director of the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, efficiency of the measures proposed by Trump tends toward zero. It seems, the expert says, the economic agenda proposed by Trump focuses on issues beyond economy, on issues in the social and political spheres. The expert assessed the US economy as highly well-balanced though having risks, with the major one being the global crisis. He, however, noted that the flashpoint of the crisis will be not the US but another major economy.
Alexander Ermolenko, FBK Legal Partner, directed the audience?s attention to institutional criteria which will impact the implementation of the economic policy measures pursued by Trump and specific aspects of the American legislative system. A critical, if not decisive, role played by the judicial authorities and litigation in the implementation of the executive powers? orders, a high level of federalism and independence of the states? authorities from the federal governance, historically strong contribution of the political parties to decision-making process at the administration level, all of this can?t but affect the pace of implementation and the content of the economic policy pursued by Donald Trump, the expert noted.
Speculating on the implications the US proposed economic policy might have on Russia?s economic environment, the experts suggested that it won?t make that great difference for the economy of this country which will be much more dependent on the locally pursued economic policy.
The FBK Economic Club is a unique discussion forum which facilitates wide economic insights exchange between mass media and renowned economists, politicians and government officials.
Igor Nikolaev, Director of Institute for Strategic Research at FBK, briefed the audience on the key policy measures being introduced under Trumponomics, including investment into the infrastructure, lower income tax, protective import duty at the level of 45 per cent of the product value, internal market protection from migrant workers. According to Nikolaev, these measures strategically aim at the reindustrialization of the US economy. However, a number of risk factors of the US economy may pose a barrier to doing it, with the major one being the country?s high national debt exceeding 20 trln US dollars (~106% of the US GDP) and a looming cyclical crisis in the global economy which, Nikolaev believes, is just around the corner.
Pavel Demidov, Expert of the Center for Strategic Research, political analyst, Americanologist, argues that the changes being proposed by Trump are quite questionable. Specifically, many economists believe that it is unlikely that investment in infrastructure will ensure growth of the US economy in the long term. Besides, it is likely that, amid confrontation between Trump and the political establishment, some measures will fail, whereas other could have unexpected implications.
Alexey Portansky, Professor of the Department for World Economy and International Affairs at the NRU HSE, leading research fellow of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, noted that it is with growing concerns that the global community observes the measures pursued by the new US administration. The expert community does not welcome the economic policy pursued by Donald Trump. Withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership doubled with no clear prospect for the Trans-Atlantic partnership also affect the projections. According to Alexey Portansky, behaviour demonstrated by Trump throws into question the leading role of the US as the major economic power globally which has been undisputable for the last seventy years. Such political behaviour is fraught with unexpected consequences and may result in the reformation of the global economy as a whole.
According Andrey Movchan, Director of the Economic Policy Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, efficiency of the measures proposed by Trump tends toward zero. It seems, the expert says, the economic agenda proposed by Trump focuses on issues beyond economy, on issues in the social and political spheres. The expert assessed the US economy as highly well-balanced though having risks, with the major one being the global crisis. He, however, noted that the flashpoint of the crisis will be not the US but another major economy.
Alexander Ermolenko, FBK Legal Partner, directed the audience?s attention to institutional criteria which will impact the implementation of the economic policy measures pursued by Trump and specific aspects of the American legislative system. A critical, if not decisive, role played by the judicial authorities and litigation in the implementation of the executive powers? orders, a high level of federalism and independence of the states? authorities from the federal governance, historically strong contribution of the political parties to decision-making process at the administration level, all of this can?t but affect the pace of implementation and the content of the economic policy pursued by Donald Trump, the expert noted.
Speculating on the implications the US proposed economic policy might have on Russia?s economic environment, the experts suggested that it won?t make that great difference for the economy of this country which will be much more dependent on the locally pursued economic policy.
The FBK Economic Club is a unique discussion forum which facilitates wide economic insights exchange between mass media and renowned economists, politicians and government officials.
